First, we focus on the story of the day which is the phase one china trade deal or the lack thereof. According to the US, side tariffs will be increased if there is no deal signed or at least on paper before December 15th. Here is why neither side is willing to cave so easily... Appearances. They cannot appear weak in what is sure to be a historic change to the world stage. The issue is this is looking like it could develop into a much more elevated conversation if this continues. We also see the stock market reaction was strong. The dow jones sold off and the S&P descended toward the 3,000 mark. The yield curve also flattened dramatically this is quickly deteriorating into a situation in which the markets could reprice risk assets in a moment on a bad headline or rumor. Trade accordingly.
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