Komal Sri-Kumar, president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, joins "Squawk Box" to discuss what he's watching in the markets heading into the new year. Corporate leaders around the world apparently have not gotten the memo yet that a recession isn’t happening anytime soon.
CEOs still consider the end to an expansion that has been the longest in U.S. history and has spread around the globe to be the biggest fear in 2020, according to the Conference Board’s CEO Challenge survey released Thursday. This is the second year in a row for recession to take the lead.
“Just two years ago, global recession was barely on the minds of CEOs in our survey. One real risk of this recession mindset is that it can become a self-fulfilling prophecy,” the survey’s authors said in a summary.
The recession fears come amid “continued uncertainty around global trade, increasing competition, global political instability, and tightening labor markets — which, in themselves, can be significant restraints on business growth.”
Those concerns persisted in 2019 as the U.S. and China continued their trade war and geopolitical issues such as Brexit and a toxic climate in Washington contributed to a volatile climate. Recession fears peaked in late summer as the bond market sent a strong signal that a recession was on its way in the next 12 months.
However, Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, a strong labor market and a buoyant consumer have helped quell those concerns — Goldman Sachs earlier this week issued a report saying the U.S. in particular has become fundamentally loss-prone to recessions.
Indeed, Conference Board officials said they expect the outlook to get better.
“The ongoing concerns about recession risk among business leaders reflect the slowing economy of the past year and the uncertainties about the outcome of the trade disputes and other policy concerns,” Bart van Ark, chief economist at The Conference Board, said in a statement. “However, given a slightly better outlook for the global economy and an easing of trade tensions, we anticipate that a drumbeat of negative sentiment — which can become a self-fulling prophecy — can be avoided, and that we will see more confidence about business prospects in 2020.”
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